Our research examines how the income distribution and overall welfare might develop in different European countries amid potential shifts in the job structure. These shifts are conceptualised through various scenarios, shaped by assumptions about employment trends arising from automation effects. We use EUROMOD, a tax and benefit microsimulation model for the European Union, and data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey (EU-SILC) to calculate the changes in disposable income and inequality indicators under different automatisation and policy scenarios following Eurofound projections. With a discrete choice model we further estimate female labour supply and simulate welfare effects of providing a version of Universal Basic Income to all single unemployed and inactive women. Results indicate that the countries with more generous welfare systems not only experience smaller increase in income inequality as a consequence of the automatisation but also have a higher share of winners of the policy reform even in the scenario with the faster uptake of the automatisation.
